Malone, Come on Fella, You Know the Answer

Part of the fun of being an observer of the tech revolution all of these years, particularly here at Ground Zero in Silicon Valley, is the epic human frisson that comes from really brutal market competition: the companies stealing each others’ employees (and sometimes their technologies), the rich and famous who lose their cool in public, the unforgiveable slights and cuts that take place everywhere from cocktail parties to industry conferences, the companies that sweep the table and the companies that bet it all . . .and go down in flames.

This is the Silicon Valley I love, and it was at its best in the late ‘60s (when Fairchild blew up and the scores of new chip companies fought to the death), in the early ‘80s (when the personal computer boom surfaced maniacs like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates), and, as noted, in the late ‘90s, when everybody became a paper millionaire overnight and went insane in the process.

Unfortunately, the last few years - the Web 2.0 years — have been comparatively dull. Sure, there have been a lot of great companies created, fortunes made, and some of the greatest consumer products in tech history introduced. But somehow the big companies, old and new, seemed to slipped right past each other. They’ve carved out spaces of their own and rarely tread upon each other’s turf.

Dull? Sure they have been dull. You won’t fess up as to why, so I will — Suits. What happened to tech has happens to several industries before; Railroads, Phone companies, Airlines, Automotive. The Hughes’s and Sloan’s, firebrands that start a trend eventually give way to the Suits, bean counters all. It is a natural progression and it happened to Tech as well.

The current jockeying, by the Suits, has more to do with revenue stream maintenance than anything else. Bing, is an extension of what was LiveSearch. Wave, though it has very interesting components is an up lift of several current Google technologies. Alpha, product of a new entrant, is not much more than a subclassing of the Google search paradigm for the statistician in all of us. I would not consider these efforts rehashes. No, they are expected progressions up the online tech ladder. But none of them are breakthru technologies but will likely enhance the bottom line of all concerned.

Android may become the iPhone killer everyone expected. But long before that happens I fully expect to see Android in a heck of a lot of other products irrespective of the announcements of Acer and Asus. Android on coke dispensers, children’s toys, eReaders, nettops, embedded controllers, etc. That is where Android will have the greatest impact and most won’t know it for it will be hidden from the consumer with a pretty face. Plus anybody that reads our missives knew moves were being made to/for the ARM months ago.

Twitter. You may consider it a challenger to Google. I consider that it is defined by the first four letters of the service name. Oh sure the growth numbers are astounding. No argument. But so are the retention numbers. Some estimates make it to 80% of people are NOT using Twitter 6 months after being introduced to it. To be kind about it, Twitter is the functional equivalent of Western Union.

“…And who is waiting in the wings to take on those other two long-standing locks: Amazon and eBay?” Mr. Malone, by the looks of things eBay is taking on itself. eBay is already making moves in the UK market. Tea leaves predicting that maybe it is a precursor to the spin off of Skype. Skype itself is trying to make a move into the corporate environment even offering ‘interoperability’. Something that Skype has spurned since inception. Amazon? They keep growing the cloud. Their success is a threat to Google, but in a sense assures Amazon continued viability. Whereas Google manages the flow of information, Amazon manages the flow of product and how to find it.

Just keep in mind, the Suits are still in control.

Linky.